news, politics, humor, peak oil, good food, organic gardening, music, my life, and my hope for humanity... FREE THE JENA 6
Blog Details
Overall rank: 45531 Number of inbound blogs: 128 Number of incoming links: 300 ATOM: ATOM feed Last update: 2008-07-23 15:06:30 GMT Estimated value: $203,270
Analytics
Incoming clicks since last reset: 0 Outgoing clicks since last reset: 129
Latest Posts
James Howard Kunstler-- "Does Mr. O Know?"
This week, Mr. Kunstler wonders what President Elect Obama knows about energy, and to where, and how we need to transition in order to properly survive as a nation. Throughout the article, he drops the latest energy data, which do not sound particularly good.
A lot of readers are twanging on me for refraining to castigate President-elect Obama for deeds yet undone. They're discouraged by the advisors and cabinet sectetaries he's picked, ostensibly because the crew coming in are Washington "insiders," meaning they can't possibly see or do things differently. My own starting point for this is the belief that in the years just ahead any sociopolitical entity organized at the giant scale will flounder -- this includes everything from the federal government to global corporations to factory farms to centralized high schools to national retail chains. So even expecting Mr. Obama's government to act effectively may be asking too much in a situation that will require mostly local action. The meta-situation will be the overall decline of energy resources and the necessary downscaling of our activities. We are obviously in a transitional period between the old profligate energy economy and the new economy of relative scarcity. We have no idea how disorderly this transition will be, but there is certainly potential for tremendous instability in daily life. For a while, perhaps, the federal government may retain some ability to affect the way things go, or give the appearance of doing so. This raises the issue of what Mr. Obama and his team really know about our energy predicament. The president-elect has made some noises -- recently on the 60 Minutes show -- that he understands something about the current price dislocations in the oil markets resulting from the larger financial turmoil. He alluded to the public's erroneous notion that current low-ish oil prices mean the oil problem is over. But does the incoming president know some of the following details? For instance, does Mr. O know that global oil production appears to have peaked at around 85 million barrels a day, with poor prospects of ever getting beyond that? This single naked fact has broad ramifications, above all whether we can continue to think in terms of industrial "growth" as the benchmark for economic health. There are many interpretations of the current financial fiasco. Some of them are based on long-term technical wave theories. A more down-to-earth view suggests the shock of peak oil -- though it doesn't exclude wave theories. Does Mr. O know that world oil discovery has fallen to insignificant levels after peaking long ago in the 1960s. Does he know we are finding no more super-giant oil fields on the scale of Arabia's Ghawar or Mexico's Cantarell, which have supplied most of the world's oil for the past forty years and are now running down? Does he know that you can't produce oil that hasn't been discovered? Does Mr. O know that virtually all the oil-producing nations have entered production decline. Surely someone has whispered in his ear about the IEA's projection that global oil production would fall 9.1 percent in the coming year. Does Mr. O know that oil exports have been trending to decline at a steeper rate than oil depletion? That is, the exporting nations are losing their ability to send oil to the importers (like us) at a rate mathematically greater than the run-down in their production.They are using more of their own oil even while their production is going down. For example, Mexico is depleting overall at more than 9 percent a year (with the Cantarell field alone running down at more than 15 percent annually). Does he know Mexico's net exports are crashing? Mexico has been our number three leading source of imports. In a very few years they will not be able to send us any oil. A deluded American public has no idea that this is happening. Will Mr. O explain it to them? Does Mr. O know that the "old major" oil companies (Exxon-Mobil, Texaco, Shell, et al) produce less than 10 percent of the world's oil now -- the other 90 percent coming from the foreign nationals -- and that blaming them for the situation is a waste of time. The foreign national companies are changing the landscape of the oil markets. They're making special contracts with "favored customers" rather than just putting their oil up for auction on the futures markets. One thing you can infer from this is that we're entering a period of national oil hoarding based on coming scarcity. The futures markets were based on relative abundance, and they will not operate very well in a climate of scarcity. Consider that the USA will probably not be among the "favored customers" for several oil producing nations. Figure that in with the coming loss of imports from Mexico (and Venezuela and Nigeria). Does Mr. O know that the current drop in oil prices (due to massive financial deleveraging) has resulted in the cancellation or postponment of the very oil production projects that were hoped to offset the coming depletions? It's not worth it for an oil enterprise (private or foreign) to drill in deepwater or venture into arctic regions when oil is priced at $50-a-barrel -- if it costs $80 to get the stuff out of the ground. It's not worth digging up tar sands in Canada at that price. This halt in activity is going to boomerang back on the US in a year or so, with depletions ongoing everywhere and no new oil to take its place. Does Mr. O know that we're just as likely to see shortages as a resuming rise in oil prices here in the US during his coming term? Does Mr. O know that the current re-inflation program being run by the Treasury and the Federal Reserve is so egregious that it may lead to loss of the dollar's legitimacy, to the renunciation of dollar holdings by other nations, to the down-rating of US Treasury debt instruments, and finally to an inability of the US to purchase foreign oil -- which comprises two-thirds of all the oil we use every day? Does Mr. O know that we are not going to run the US automobile and truck fleet on any combination of alt.fuels? Continuing it by other means is a fantasy that will only disappoint us. The motoring era is coming to an end. Heroic investments in highway infrastructure to create jobs will be a tragic waste of our dwindling capital. The pressure for Mr. O to make these misinvestments will be enormous, perhaps insurmountable. There are probably not a thousand people in the US who agree with what I am saying -- meaning the consensus to keep the cars running at all costs overwhelms reality at the moment. Does Mr. O's concept of "change" include the possibility that we may have to live very differently in this society? Chances are, if Mr. O knows any of these things he might be crucified in the polls and the media by acknowledging them. The only "change" that America really wants to hear about is evicting George Bush from the White House. They're sick of him and all the disturbance he has caused in their financial affairs. But beyond that, the American public is deathly afraid of the kind of changes we actually face -- such as, the end of consumer culture, the gross loss of value in suburban real estate (which forms the bulk of the middle class's private wealth), the prospect of food and fuel scarcities, the need to re-localize our lives, the need to physically shape up to stop the costly and unnecessary drain on our medical resources, to grow more of our own food, to work harder at things that actually matter, and to save whatever we can for a difficult future. If Mr. O introduces any of these themes into the national discourse, the public and the media and the bloggers will all dump on him for failing to prop up the wild party that American life became in recent decades.
I certainly won't. I hope he does bring it all up, or at least, I hope that he will simply do those things that need done to get us where we need to be. On these issues, he really doesn't need to explain much. If he pushes forth a supertrain project, and/or massive wind/solar/tidal energy projects, all Americans really want to know is if there is a job in it for them. Most of us already know how fuct we truly are at this point. We just want to know that there IS a way out and up to something newand better-- whatever that may be-- in the forseeable future.
I really want you readers to understand how much I want us to make it through these Hard Times. I've done my best to provide the causes of how we got here, as well as a very functional road map as to how to live while the changes are occurring around us.
Start planning your 2009 garden-- NOW. I've shown you how to Container Garden and how to Window-Box Garden in an apartment, I've shown you how to garden in Raised Beds and how to Square-Foot Garden. There is always your neighbor's or friend's back yard, or renting a Community plot, and setting up Square-Foot Gardening beds. Every bit of food that you can produce and preserve for yourself right now will prove vital and enormously valuable in the months and years ahead.
This blog is searchable by tags in the search box top left, and google-able by any tag or keyword you can remember from an article-- just put monkefister along with the search words-- "garden" "gardening" "Square Foot Gardening" "food security" food preservation" canning" "freezing" and "hunting" are good starting keywords. I'll dig up any articles that you can describe to me if you ask in comments or email. Comments yields the quickest response.
It's time to get serious, folks. 2009 will be the year when Gardening will no longer simply be an option. At the least, grow some Onions, Pole Beans, Potatoes, Tomatoes, Cucumbers, and Greens. Start planning it now. I'll do my best to help you-- just ask, it's why I am here doing this.
We're not going to see the ol' "America of Yesteryear" ever again. That's going away now, and really won't be revived. It's time right now, to drop back to simplifying our lives, and remembering all of those ways of life that our Grandparents, Great- and Great-Great Grandparents taught us. That will buy us some sort of cushion while the next 2-10 years play out. Everything is changing, and we MUST adjust to a very different way of living RIGHT NOW. Conditions will improve, but, we'll be living in a new paradigm by the time we see real improvements. Dropping back to the lowest energy input methods is prudent and cost-efficient and most of all-- PROVEN.
In the span of time-- I am figuring, probably naively-- this evolutionary process will engulf between now and 2018. Gosh, that seems so far along... so far away... Look-- as long and horrible that these Bush years have seemed, it has only been less than eight years to date.
Remember when you thought that 2008 seemed SO FAR AWAY? We're only talking two Presidential terms and into the third.
Four years of hard slog back and restructuring under Obama, four years of stabilization under the new beta future (Obama or a new President?), and the next President in 2016 only needs to be sane, not start wars, and maintain... building on what proves good, dropping what proves bad or finished. We'll have a LOT of re-building to do in only ten years. The Kyoto Protocols are ten years old. I'm imagining much more real pressure new and over these next years to push the transition along. Ever the optimist am I.
Of course, all the while, the Right Wing nuts will scream "SOCIALISM!!1!!eleventy", and "You're taking us back to the 18th Century!!!!" but, we will need to drop back to Amish-style living for a while-- with the assistance of rusty engines and stuff, voltaics, windmills, and some computers and electronics. But, what we have right now is close to the high tide mark for some time. We'll get some smarter electronics in the next few years, but, not much more as everything contracts. Most of that new stuff will be over-priced for the time period, so we might as well learn to deal with what we have right now. God's forbid that the Republicans regain power in the midst of this turbulent turnover. They will fuck us all to horrible deaths.
Get that garden planned now. This year, growing food will no longer be an option. Just do it. Grow as much as you can. don't worry if some things die from lack of light. Just do it. You'll learn.
Not one to whore products or vendors, but... Buy some Alpin Aire dehydrated foods from Survival Acres, I recco Alpine Aire foods because they are excellent, cheaper, and deliver quickly, and I recco SA because I know that John is one of the only ethical souls out there in that market, who is selling good product without making a killing, but as an honest service-- and he pours that money into helping others first.
Buy "junk silver" coinage at Bullion prices, as you can (there is a link to today's Bullion prices in my Sidebar), buy a Katadyn Water Filter and extra filters, buy manual gardening tools and supplies and learn how to use them. Buy lots of Tea Tree Oil, Hydrogen Peroxide, and Isopropyl Alcohol, bandaids, bandages, medical tape or "Gaffers" tape (Google "Gaffer's Tape" --to hell with that bullshit Duct tape) and OTC medicines and vitamins and mineral supplements-- Fred's usually has some really good deals-- keep them in a dark, dry place-- in a lidded bucket with some silica gel, in the closet.
Buy a suture kit or two with instructions. Buy a few extra for practice. Take some classes, or get to know someone in the Emergency Medical fields, and ask them to help you. Buy some topical Benzocaine-- this is unsavory, but the best Benzocaine is sold as an anal sex lube called, "Tush Ease." It numbs nearly instantly and for a very long time.
No, I'm not into the anal sex. I bought some suture kits, and then thought, "Hmmm.... best to numb before stitching," and the research led me to the "Tush Ease," as the strongest legal, topical desensitizer (7.5% Benzocaine) available at a cheap price (~$4.50 per 1.5oz tube). It's great for minor scalds and burns, and bee/wasp stings, BTW.
Plant as many Medicinal plants that you can, and buy a book on how to use them. Buy Black Pepper corns by the pound from Ebay, and buy a grinder. There is no such thing as too much Kosher Salt-- I mean that. Buy Hurricane Lamps, and buy lots of lamp oil every time you see it cheap. Tiki Torches and Citronella Oil-- buy some whenever you see them cheap.
Learn to hunt and clean small and large game. Buy the guns, licenses, and ammo to hunt them properly. The investment is worth it. If you can butcher your own deer, you save between $50 and $80 to have the Butcher do it for you. It takes less than two hours to process a deer, and, unlike the Butcher option, you are 100% guaranteed the deer that you took. it takes less than twenty minutes to clean a rabbit or squirrel. Yes, it is sort of brutal and gross and smelly, and takes lots of time and patience... Get over it-- it is your food. Don't think that WalMart will always have your boneless chicken for you. Don't think that Tyson or Pilgrim's Pride (who is going into Bankruptcy) are any more kind. Doing it yourself is more humane to the animal, and healthy for you and your family-- and the Game gains real value to you as you cook it. Be sure to spend some time and money to feed those animals that you hunt in the off seasons. Sow some clover seed where you hunt, at the least. Nurture nature-- it is your link to survival.
Here's one final little piece of advice: Save up, as quickly as you can, $1500 in cash, and have it somewhere safe, and set aside, and be sure that where ever you keep it is secure. Whether a Credit Union or your mattress. Don't ever tap it for stupid stuff like beer, or a party or a plasma TV. Just sit on it. I will guaran-damn-tee you, that some day, in the next two years, you will need damned near exactly $1500 to get you out of an emergency tight spot.
And you will have it.
Anyway. I'm just offering up stuff that has proven successful in the past, and stuff that I am doing that is proving successful, now. Your mileage may vary.
At any rate, I've posted a LOT of useful stuff over the years to this little blog, and I'll help you dig for it if you simply ask.
The following linked article, by Charles Hugh Smith, is a fantastic piece, that fleshes out the time table that I laid out in brief, in the post below. I strongly recommend just clicking the link, and following the linked resources that he provides in his post. This is good stuff.
It's interesting how short-sighted many so-called experts are when it comes to understanding the pace and path of forces swirling through the economy.
Even when it was apparent to everyone that the bubble had burst in housing, for example, some forecasters were predicting that municipal finances would not be seriously affected.
Aside from wishful thinking, one reason for the cognitive dissonance appeared to stem from the fact that people were not getting immediate reports from state and local officials that budgets were being wracked by falling revenues and rising costs.
Yet that should not have been a surprise to anyone. There are in-built delays, such as the time it takes to build a house or the grace period allowed for tax receipts to be remitted to authorities, that would postpone the moment of reckoning for months -- or longer.
The same holds true in terms of the state of the overall economy. The optimists seem to be saying that since today's data are not so bad, fears about a serious downturn are overblown.
This is fairly good insight, but I think that Panzner is being too kind, and not noting that most of those "optimists" are getting paid by Companies, Corporations, and Think Tank/PAC-type entities to deny reality, and to trick richer fools into keeping money in this collapsing system.
And now-- the meat and potatoes. (please, just click to the link to read it all.):
Wall Street Journal commentator Peggy Noonan is undoubtedly not alone is seeing no evidence of Depression in America--yet: Turbulence Ahead:
"One of the weirdest, most perceptually jarring things about the economic crisis is that everything looks the same. We are told every day and in every news venue that we are in Great Depression II, that we are in a crisis, a cataclysm, a meltdown, the credit crunch from hell, that we will lose millions of jobs, and that the great abundance is over and may never return. Three great investment banks have fallen while a fourth totters, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen 31% in six months. And yet when you free yourself from media and go outside for a walk, everything looks . . . the same.
Everyone is dressed the same. Everyone looks as comfortable as they did three years ago, at the height of prosperity. The mall is still there, and people are still walking into the stores and daydreaming with half-full carts in aisle 3. Everyone's still overweight.
But the point is: Nothing looks different.
In the Depression people sold apples on the street. They sold pencils. Angels with dirty faces wore coats too thin and short and shivered in line at the government surplus warehouse."
Peg would be well-served by reading up a bit on the Depression's timeline. As noted here last week, (The Coming Great Depression: Scapegoats and Exploitation) the Dow Jones Industrial Average actually recovered in early 1930 to early-1929 levels. (Look for the same this time around, too--DJIA 12,600 is in the cards a few months out, despite all the structural damage to the market and economy.)
Breadlines didn't form in November 1929--the structural damage took years to play out then, and it will take years to play out now. So don't rush things, Peggy--we'll get to a visible Depression soon enough.
Great Depression: (Wikipedia) The Great Depression was not a sudden, total collapse. The stock market turned upward in early 1930, returning to early 1929 levels by April, though still almost 30 percent below the peak of September 1929. Together, government and business actually spent more in the first half of 1930 than in the corresponding period of the previous year. But consumers, many of whom had suffered severe losses in the stock market the previous year, cut back their expenditures by ten percent, and a severe drought ravaged the agricultural heartland of the USA beginning in the summer of 1930.
In early 1930, credit was ample and available at low rates, but people were reluctant to add new debt by borrowing. By May 1930, auto sales had declined to below the levels of 1928. Prices in general began to decline, but wages held steady in 1930, then began to drop in 1931. We can already anticipate "ample credit at low rates" in 2009, just as we can also anticipate wages holding steady for awhile even as sales fall. The wheels will fall off later in 2009 and deteriorate further in 2010, 2011 and 2012.
Here are the structural realities which have yet to play out:
1. You can't force households or businesses to borrow more money and spend it. Japan's central bank has flooded that nation with liquidity and low interest money for 19 years to little effect. 2. U.S. consumers and corporations are already burdened with staggering debt. Not only can't you force people to borrow more, you also can't force lenders to loan more money to insolvent households and businesses. 3. Whatever money people get their hands on is going to paying down debt and savings. Studies of the first "stimulus package" checks which went out to taxpayers in 2008 revealed that 2/3 of the money was not spent but used to service debt or saved. Future "stimulus checks" will also fail to boost spending; people already have more stuff than they know what to do with. 4. The FIRE economy is dead. Finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE) all prospered for one reason: the velocity of transactions and debt instruments. With the volume of transactions off by 2/3 (real estate) or 99% (home equity loans), the FIRE economy is shrinking fast, with no barriers to further declines. With lending standards rising even as real estate values plummet, there is nothing to stop transaction and debt velocity from falling much further. 5. Governments and corporations alike are living with Fantasyland expectations of revenue. I recently pored over the 2009 fiscal year budget of my town of 120,000 people (general fund spending is $135 million, which doesn't include capital projects or bond-funded spending) and was dumbstruck by the insanely unrealistic revenue expectations.
The city expects to reap the same amount of easy money from real estate transfer taxes (1% of any real estate transaction goes to the city) in 2009 as it did in 2007 and 2008: about $11 million.
Huh? As transaction volumes decline by 2/3 and the sales prices plummet, then how can you possibly expect to rake in the same transfer tax revenues?
The downtown shopping district was eerily quiet on Black Friday; empty storefronts are everywhere, and sales are falling even at the town's sales-tax heavyweights, the Toyota and Honda auto dealerships. Yet the city expects to haul in the same sales tax revenue as in 2008. Based on what?
The entire nation is in the grip of massive, total denial that revenues will drop in a recession. Companies are trimming travel costs, as are consumers; San Francisco International Airport was virtually empty on Wednesday, once one of the busiest travel days of the year. Airports almost empty day before Thanksgiving.
"The dreaded Day before Thanksgiving was not so dreadful after all. Bay Area airports were eerily empty for much of what traditionally has been among the busiest travel days of the year. "There's nobody here," said Deborah Vainieri, who was waiting at San Francisco International Airport with her husband, Humberto, for a flight to Portland. In a plot to beat the crowds, the Vainieris had arrived at the airport four hours early. They walked right up to the check-in machine and were done in less than a minute."
6. If lenders make risky loans, they will go under--and most U.S. households and businesses are no longer creditworthy risks. So there you have it: This conflict cannot be resolved. Lenders who foolishly extend credit to over-indebted, risk-laden borrowers will be paid back with losses and insolvency, yet as lending standards tighten and assets plummet in value, the number of creditworthy borrowers in the U.S. has shrunk.
As noted here many times: many of those who qualify for loans are deadset against debt. That's why they're creditworthy--they've refused to take on huge debt for cultural or fiscal-prudence reasons. They have zero interest in taking on debt, even at zero interest.
You can't force people to borrow money, especially when they're already overloaded with debt, and you can't force prudent people to borrow when they have no need for more property, nor can you force people to buy real estate even as the values continue falling.
7. The U.S. already has too much of everything: too many hotels, malls, office towers, homes, condos, strip-malls, lamps, furniture, CDs, TVs, clothing, etc. As 50 million storage lockers filled to capacity with consumer crap are emptied in a desperate move to reduce expenses and raise cash, the value of literally everything ever manufactured will fall to near-zero.
As noted here many times before, the entire U.S. housing market was held aloft by two anomalies: speculators hoping to "flip" for huge profits, and a "one dwelling for every person" mentality that confused rising population with a rising number of households.
We are already seeing how population can continue rising slowly even as the number of households declines. It's called moving back home, doubling up, renting out a room, etc. There are at least 20 million surplus dwellings in the U.S. right now; there is no need for 700,000 more a year to be built, or even 70,000 more.
The FIRE economy based on transaction and debt volume/velocity: gone, over, toast. Housing market based on speculative flipping and one-person households: over, gone, toast. Loose lending by delusional lenders to risky, over-indebted borrowers: gone, over, toast. Borrowing based on rising real estate values: gone, over, toast.
The notion that we "need" more of anything: gone, over, toast. The idea that you can force lenders to lend to uncreditworthy borrowers: gone, over, toast. The idea you can force people drowning in debt to borrow more: gone, over, toast.
Be sure to check out Charles Hugh Smith's "What's For Dinner At Your House?" blog thingy. He posts recipes, tries submitted recipes, reviews them, and best of all, he gives, in most cases, a price breakdown of what the meal cost him, as he shopped for it.
Charles Hugh Smith, oft-quoted and linked here, is good peoples, and has been correct in his every summation of every step of this collapse. He's wonky without being eye-glazing, and he's personable to boot. He's open and honest, has no political axe to grind, has no Corporate conflicts of interest, and really welcomes comments and corrections. He's one of my daily reads.
Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy entered a recession a year ago this month, the panel that dates American business cycles said today, making this contraction already the longest since 1982.
The declaration was made by a committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, a private, nonprofit group of economists based in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The last time the U.S. was in a recession was from March through November 2001, according to NBER.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke today said the economy “will probably remain weak for a time” and the Fed may use unconventional methods, such as buying Treasury securities, to spur growth. Should the recession persist for another five months, consistent with Fed and private forecasts, it would become the longest since the Great Depression.
“It is clearly not going to end in a few months,” Jeffrey Frankel, a member of the NBER committee and a professor at Harvard University, said in an interview. “We would be lucky to get done with it in the middle of next year.”
Separate reports today showed the recession has deepened. U.S. manufacturing contracted in November at the fastest rate in 26 years, according to the Institute for Supply Management, based in Tempe, Arizona. The Commerce Department said construction spending fell more than forecast in October as a slump in homebuilding spread to non-residential projects.
Like I said last week. It is time to start discussing the coming DEPRESSION, now. We've all been discussing this here for a few years now, and I hope that all of these posts are proving valuable resources for how to adjust, and survive what is yet to come. Gardening, hunting, canning and freezing food are the major things that I am trying to put forward now.
Hell-- just holding onto the job and the house is taking major focus now. I can't particularly help with that, but growing and hunting your own food is a damned good way to reduce bills, and free up cash for the mortgage.
Are there any subjects that you'd like me to post about more?
I was thinking about posting a photo essay on how to clean a deer, but, I suspect the photos would get me flagged by some quisling. I think that I'll go ahead and risk it. The next deer that I, or a friend takes, I'll try and get the pics and post some instructions.
I think that I am going to ask my neighbor across the street if I can hunt some Squirrels in his woods this weekend. If he agrees, I'll post on how to clean small game. There are also plenty of videos on the subject at YouTube.
At any rate, we're now heading into the Fifth Inning-- Commercial Property and Retail Companies, already reeling, will be going tits-up in large numbers by February. Entire Malls will close. The Alt-A and Jumbo mortgages are now beginning their collapse. Municipalities, starved for tax revenues, will start shedding jobs and services by April, and those of us still able to keep our homes will see huge tax spikes in the months following Tax Day.
We've discussed this here for years now. I'm just putting a time table on what to expect in the coming months at this point.
Pare back expenses everywhere you can. SAVE CASH. Consider ditching the cable/dish TV.
Start planning your 2009 garden NOW. Use my Sidebar for the resources you need. Ask me questions, I'll do my best to provide the best answers that I can, and guide you to resources when I don't have a quick answer.
As I have been spending nearly every weekend in the woods in West Tennessee, and this past weekend in Arkansas, I can definitely report that this year yielded a bumper crop of acorns for our area. Squirrels and deer are fat with the mast this year.
The idea seemed too crazy to Rod Simmons, a measured, careful field botanist. Naturalists in Arlington County couldn't find any acorns. None. No hickory nuts, either. Then he went out to look for himself. He came up with nothing. Nothing crunched underfoot. Nothing hit him on the head.
Then calls started coming in about crazy squirrels. Starving, skinny squirrels eating garbage, inhaling bird feed, greedily demolishing pumpkins. Squirrels boldly scampering into the road. And a lot more calls about squirrel roadkill.
But Simmons really got spooked when he was teaching a class on identifying oak and hickory trees late last month. For 2 1/2 miles, Simmons and other naturalists hiked through Northern Virginia oak and hickory forests. They sifted through leaves on the ground, dug in the dirt and peered into the tree canopies. Nothing.
"I'm used to seeing so many acorns around and out in the field, it's something I just didn't believe," he said. "But this is not just not a good year for oaks. It's a zero year. There's zero production. I've never seen anything like this before."
The absence of acorns could have something to do with the weather, Simmons thought. But he hoped it wasn't a climatic event. "Let's hope it's not something ghastly going on with the natural world."
To find out, Simmons and Arlington naturalists began calling around. A naturalist in Maryland found no acorns on an Audubon nature walk there. Ditto for Fairfax, Falls Church, Charles County, even as far away as Pennsylvania. There are no acorns falling from the majestic oaks in Arlington National Cemetery.
"Once I started paying attention, I couldn't find any acorns anywhere. Not from white oaks, red oaks or black oaks, and this was supposed to be their big year," said Greg Zell, a naturalist at Long Branch Nature Center in Arlington. "We're talking zero. Not a single acorn. It's really bizarre."
Zell began to do some research. He found Internet discussion groups, including one on Topix called "No acorns this year," reporting the same thing from as far away as the Midwest up through New England and Nova Scotia. "We live in Glenwood Landing, N.Y., and don't have any acorns this year. Really weird," wrote one. "None in Kansas either! Curiouser and curiouser."
Last year, we had a bad drought, and acorn production was down, but this year made up for it, twofold.
This sounds like a more patchy local or regional problem.
We arrived at our host, Bill's home, outside of the small town of Prescott-- quaint, yet dying the slow death of so many other small towns with a WalMart and Home Depot twenty miles from its horizon-- lovely main street, train depot now only a museum, plenty of store-fronts just waiting to be filled once more. It's one of those towns that James Howard Kunstler would appreciate, for sure. Bill says, "It has everything but the people and commerce."
Prescott is about 25 miles northeast of Hope, Arkansas.
Bill is an, easy-going fella in his early 50's, baring a striking likeness to Walter Matthau. He is quick to smile, enjoys telling a good story in his low, quiet voice, which begs the listener to want to hear more. He's a very fine host, who thoroughly and clearly enjoyed our company as much as we enjoyed his hospitality. He really wanted us to get some pigs off of his land, and did everything he could to enable it.
The land:
He bought bags of beets and sweet potatoes, and laid them out in strategic places to try and get the pigs to us. He secured us some sort of permit to freely hunt his land, for not only the pigs, but to also help cull the deer herd, which is causing over-population problems on his land. We were free to hunt anything in season. Alas, the weather just simply did not cooperate.
It started raining hard and steady, as we passed the mid-way point between Little Rock and Prescott, and it didn't stop until a few hours before we needed to return home, Saturday afternoon. Because of the rain, we were relegated to perching in some well-built covered blinds, instead of getting out on some of the hog trails running through the woods in the back of his land.
Night came early in the rainy, misty November gloom. We slogged back to camp, where I started to prepare some venison chili, while Mario and Scott shucked Oysters under the RV canopy, and Bill set up the grill. We once again feasted on Oysters prepared every which way, and warmed our bellies with chili. We shared the two bottles of wine that I had brought. Bill had never told us that the area for miles around was DRY. Had I known, I'd have brought more wine, but the food and the company were excellent, and we had plenty of both. It was probably before 10pm when we retired for the night in anticipation of a morning of hot hog hunting.
We began the chilly Saturday morning still relegated to the blinds, as the rain was still coming down hard as we made coffee, and ate some oatmeal in the RV.
Sitting in the blind, armed for pig and deer, wishing for the rain to end, I enjoyed the scenery, none the less. I was perched at the edge of the woods, at the top of a gently rolling hill that led down to a good-sized spring-fed pond. I watched a nice, healthy flock of eight wild Turkeys cruise through, checking out the cow patties searching for bugs. A Bobcat came down to the pond for a drink of water, and, apparently, to try and hunt some Wood Ducks, which it scared, and flushed, instead. Lovely birds.
The view from my blind. Click for larger view.
View of the blind from the pond:
I didn't see any deer or pigs, though. Clearly, they were all bedded down in the thickets of the deep woods, and were not moving around. Indeed, as the rain let off, it seemed that we were the only critters that were moving around.
Looking down at the pond, I kept having visions of a huge herd of hogs coming down to the water. I imagined calling the others to come down, and all of us setting up the BIG strategy to hunt them. But, the pigs never came, and the rain kept falling. We didn't get to go ranging until around around 10am, Saturday, when the sheeting rains died down to something like a spitting mist.
Bill, and my friend, Mario, were getting a bit cold, and decided to head back to the camp. Scott and I decided that we would try and get into those woods, and walk the hog trails in search of their bedding areas. Bill was nice enough to let me use his nice, old .410 for some Fox Squirrel hunting, as his woods are thick with them. He gave me his box of shells, and we set off with our rifles on our shoulders, and shotguns ('broken") resting in our arms.
Just one of the many rolling fields:
Scott is our connection to our host-- they used to work together in the NatGas industry-- and drove up from Pensacola for this hunt. Scott looks like a taller version of a younger Mickey Rooney. He wears a permanent smile, has a keen wit and an optimism and energy that is truly infectious. His potential for mischief and fun run high in the vein of Hunter S. Thompson. He's an avid outdoorsman, who prefers to be out where the telephone and power lines don't reach. My kind of folk, and we became friends quickly. We'd stop in front of briar-choked thickets through which ran obvious hog trails. We'd set up a strategy, and take turns charging into one end of them, while the other stood at the far end, ready for hogs to fly out. I hope to be able to take him up to Michigan some day, for some hunting and fly-fishing. He keeps a tattered list of places he'd like to hunt, fish and kayak in his backpack, crossing them off as he gets to them, adding more as he hears of them.
Two hours later, we didn't see a single hog, nor did we see any signs that they were even moving around. The piles of mangles and yams sat undisturbed. We followed some of those trails so deep into the thickets, that we had to cut ourselves out of the briars (mostly, cutting the briar branches off of our clothing, hands and face), and break out the compass to get our bearings on several occasions. If anything was in those thickets, they were too intent on bedding down and keeping warm, that they didn't even flush. But, during our hike, we managed to bag nine fat Fox Squirrels.
We came back to camp exhausted. We rested for an hour or so, cleaned the game, ate some lunch, and then bid farewell to Bill, who told each of us that we are welcome to come back anytime, and to bring some friends.
Driving back home, we caught up to the rain that had just cleared out of Prescott.
Back at Mario's house, we set up an Easy-Up canopy on his patio, fired up the grill, ate the last of the Oysters, a chunk of Venison backstrap that I had brought, and three of our squirrels. Mario had never eaten squirrel, or tasted really good, non-gamey deer meat. After swearing that he wouldn't eat either, and insisted that we not cook the third Squirrel for himas it all cooked on the grill, we were able to finally talk him into it, and, lo-and-behold, he was more than impressed with both. We didn't have left-overs.
Let me tell you-- nothing makes a spaghetti sauce more tasty than a squirrel simmering in it.
Mario had never been hunting before, and now fully understands how much work and patience is involved. He loved watching the day break, and listening to the world waking up around him, and spoke at length about how much he enjoyed it. Ironically, he was the only one of the four of us to actually see a deer-- he estimated it at about 75 yards from him, moving through the woods-- he was so awe-struck that he didn't have it in him to even shoulder his gun.
Hoping for a high hog count, and only coming home with a few squirrels was a bit disappointing, but being able to hike and hunt hundreds of acres of some of the most beautiful, gentle land I've ever had the pleasure to know, was certainly worth the trip. Spending time with good friends, both old and new, was absolutely priceless.
Today, I am certain that those piles of beets and yams are aswarm with fat, contented Hogs, picking their tusks, smoking cigs, and patting their full bellies. I can see it now...
Thank you, Bill, for your kindness, friendship and hospitality. Scott-- it's great to have made your acquaintance, and I know that we will be doing this again, sometime very soon.
I got home from Thanksgiving Day dinners around 5pm. My old shipmate, and dear friend, Mario called me at 6:15pm, telling me that Scott was in the home stretch to Mario's house.
As it worked out, we both arrived at Mo's place at the same time. We shook hands, made acquaintances, and I asked him if he needed any help loading his gear in.
"Well, I've got this cooler, if you want to grab an end," he said, while shouldering his two guns.
I grabbed a handle of the surprisingly heavy cooler, and led the way to the door, where Mario met us.
The cooler was filled with 60 pounds of fresh oysters and 25 pounds of shrimp from right off the boat this morning in Pensacola, FL. They were packed in ice with beer and several bottles of quality whiskey and tequila.
Mo had the charcoal grill already fired up, and over the past four hours, we grilled and ate half the shrimp, and tore through oysters... raw, grill-steamed, and even Rockefeller. Mario's Dad is a Shrimper, who has friends who raise the oysters-- so, as Scott was passing through the area, Mo's Dad hooked him up.
Scott is a great guy-- giving, smart, and super-easy to like, with a ready smile and laugh, and we're already friends.
I am told that we will have a motor home in place near where the pigs are right now. Water tank filled, propane, shower, the works. We'll also have access to the house, of course.
I feel crazy spoiled right now.
My circle of friends is very small these days, but the few that I have are the best I've ever had. They just click and stick, and are now tighter than blood family to me.
We're leaving at 5am, and we are all set and ready to bring home some bacon.
Mario will be using my AK-47 with the 5-clip. I recently had a new scope mount installed in place of the top cover, and before I came home tonight from Thanksgiving dinners, I went out to the hunting field to grab the blind and chairs. I took the time to get the AK scoped and zeroed out to 150 yards. Pretty-much max range for the ol'AK. I was hitting a target the size of a golf ball at full range. Constantly. Not even really trying. The last three rounds were legal hunting rounds from the box that I bought for him. I put three holes one inside the other on Bullseye. Mario is going to do great with that gun against any pigs we come up on.
It's great to be able to hand a hunting buddy a gun, and KNOW that it is shooting perfectly accurate and safe.
Actually, it arrived in the US last Thursday, I always buy a case, as a bottle makes a great gift at this time of year.
Now, when I first started drinking the Beaujolais Nouveau, back in the early 1990s, it was priced at $6 per bottle, and stayed that price for a decade. Three years ago, it went up to $8 per bottle; two years ago, it went up to $11 per bottle; last year it was $14 per bottle; but I was not prepared to see it at $18.50 per bottle this year. This may be my last year of buying it, as, lets face it-- it is just "cheap" red table wine, and I can get GREAT reds for even less.
At any rate, this year's offering is a delight. As I tip up the glass, I am hit with a sparkling frontal assault of fruit and sour-- like Granny Smith Apple, and a quick bite of Crab-Apple, WOO!, and then as the wine washes over the tongue, mild pear and almost buttery flavors take over... and the finish is tinged with hints of soft, strawberry and banana undertones. The wine is leggy, and full-bodied, and leaves the palate dry and clean, ready for more.
Hmmm.... lemme take another sip of that... Oh, yeah-- that's good.
It is certainly very palatable, and I know my friends will enjoy it as a gift. I'm just not going to pay this price again next year. As I said-- for $18, I can get two fantastic bottles of Chilean Cabernet, and will enjoy them much more.
Beaujolais nouveau is a red wine made from Gamay grapes produced in the Beaujolais region of France. It is the most popular vin de primeur, fermented for just a few weeks then officially released for sale on the third Thursday of November. This "Beaujolais Day", or "Beaujolais Nouveau Day" sees heavy marketing from the producers, with races to get the first bottles of the vintage to different markets.
Beaujolais Nouveau is a purple-pink wine that is particularly lightweight, even by the standards of Beaujolais. The method of production means that there is very little tannin, and the wine can be dominated by fruity, ester flavours of bananas and pear drops. These are enhanced by the frequent recommendation to serve the wine lightly chilled, at approximately 13°C (55°F).
And isn't that bottle a wonderfully seasonal piece of art!
To sum up: Good wine-- not ever a great wine-- but, excellent for what it is. It MUST be corked and drunk before mid-January, and cannot be aged. But, still-- It makes a great gift for drinking right away, perfect for a Turkey dinner (or Duck, Goose, Venison or Rabbit), but, at $18.50, I simply won't be buying any more after this year, and instead, gifting less-expensive, better reds this time of year.
This year's wine will MULL very, very nicely, the more that I think about it.
I've got invites to two dinners tomorrow, and I am also preparing some munchies for Pig Camp.
I made a classic dish that the Polish side of my family always makes-- Cucumbers and Onions with Dill, Black Pepper, and Sour Creme. I add a little splash of Cider Vinegar for a bit of flavor.
I made a giant appetizer tray with some smoked Trout and Whitefish that I ordered from a company in Michigan's U.P., and some good cheeses and Venison Summer Sausage and smoked Oysters from the Butcher Shop, home-made sweet and hot pickles, and some hot, pickled peppers. I made some fresh Italian bread, as well (as of 9pm).
I cooked a small Ham, which I studded with cloves, glazed with Honey, and then made a broth to keep it moist, of Orange Juice and Vernor's Ginger Ale. To that, I added fresh-ground Nutmeg, Ginger, and a stick of Cinnamon. YUMMY!!!
Right now, I am making stuffing for a Duck that I will take to Pig Camp on Friday.
I'm boiling the giblets in a can of chicken broth and 2/3-cup Beaujolais Nouveau right now. I'm going to save the remaining broth from the Giblets to moisten the Stuffing Bread. Everything else is all chopped and ready to go.
Here's the recipe for Monkeyfister's Awesome Stuffing(No measurements, just as needed for the amount of stuffing desired):
Sautee in BUTTER(just go ahead and chop a whole stick into the pan... don't worry-- it's Thanksgiving) a two-handed scoop each of Celery Hearts and Sweet Onions (Onions are from my garden), Sage and Thyme from the garden, a handful of Dried Cranberries, 1/2 a Pomegranate of seeds, 1/2 an Apple diced, chopped Shitake, and other Wild Mushrooms, some shaved Carrot from the garden for color. Add the Duck Giblets all cooked and chopped. Simmer until Celery is soft, and then finish with a splash of this year's Beaujolais Nouveau, and put together with the bread mixture, moistening with the Giblet broth.
I'm going to put the stuffing into the fridge overnight, and then cook it with the Duck in the morning.
The house is smelling AWESOMELY good right now!
I'm also bringing some smoked Trout and Whitefish that I ordered from a company in Michigan's U.P., and some good cheeses, and a chunk of Venison backstrap for breakfast on Saturday-- I'm going to cook it with some bacon, and some of that ham in a cast iron pan over an open fire. I'm going to side it some herbed-up Potatoes and onions, made with Parsley and Rosemary, with some crushed red peppers and a clove or two of Garlic (all from this year's garden) cooked in the Dutch Oven, and some homemade bicuits with Stilton cheese in the cast-iron buscuit maker... ooooh MAN!
What I really need is a good set of Cook Irons and some chains to go with the camp cast-iron cook gear.
I don't really need the "S" irons, what I want is set of 6 sturdy, yet light chains with "S" hooks to fit the irons properly, two at 3', two at 2', and two at 1'. The crossbar of the irons set will be 1/2-inch square stock, 4' long, and have a BIG wing-screwed-on wad-thing to keep the upright from falling out of the uprights. It will also need a separate crank handle that can BIG wing-screw on for rotisserie cooking. The two uprights are 1/2-inch Square stock, 3-1/2 feet tall, and have "O" rings bent at the top end to accept the spit/crossbar.
If one of you good readers is a Blacksmith, or if you know a good Blacksmith, I'll gladly pay Artisan prices for a good set of Cook Irons and chains as described above. Proper irons are hard to find, and I prefer the French chains for heat and level control. I'm open for improvements to my Voyageur-style irons. I'm looking for portability as well as durability. You'll need to provide some good, campable packaging for them, too. A thick, Heavy-Duty, reinforced, Canvas tube would be great, cheap and simple. Whatever works simply, to keep everything together.
Email me with "Cook Irons" in the Subject line if you can help me out. I know I'm being picky, but I have experience with the set I am specking.
"There is nothing like a good set of Cook Irons when you're cooking for the flock, over a banked cookfire with cast iron pots and pans. I thank God daily for their continual survival."--Padre Plumage d'Plummet- French Voyageur in the Strait of St. Mary's, U.P. Michigan/Canada, circa 1760-ish
It is now long-past the time to continue to speak of "a possible recession." We're are clearly IN recession, at this point, and everyone knows it. We feel it in ourr bones. There is no uncertainty about it.
You are welcome to begin discussing a "possible depression," as that is where we are clearly heading.
This desire of yours to continue to try, and spark faux optimism is not working, is the point of jokes already, and is clouding your ability to report accurately on the increasingly dire situation.
Get with the Reality that Peter Schiff, Nouriel Roubini, Paul Krugman, and Mish Shedlock have been working in for the past several years. You might even regain some credibility.
Some pictures of the sunrise this morning, around my neighborhood... It was a particularly impressive sunrise today, as a cloudy, cold front began to clear out.
This is a fantastic 1939 documentary classic, made my Lewis Mumford for the American Institute of Planners, with Civic Films and produced by American Documentary Films, with music by Aaron Copland. It compares and contrasts country life of the time with the horrors of the industrialized urban city. The end result and solution to the City problem, according to Lewis Mumford to the American Institute of Planners? Why, Suburbia, of course!
This is my rifle. The Tikka T3 is made by legendary Saiga Guns of Norway. Their trigger mechanisms are SWEET, and are passed down to the Tikka Series. It's a .308 caliber rifle, Barrel Length is 23-3/16" long. Weighs about 8 pounds loaded, with scope. Because it is so light-weight, is a bit shaky past 375 yards using a shooting stick (it is light enough that your pulse will bump-bump the gun). EXCELLENT at 500 yards on the table. I'll gladly hunt with it out to 350 yards this season. I am up to it, and so is the gun.
These are the bullets that we made just for this gun:
I'm taking these very bullets with me pig hunting. These very 14, as a matter of fact. I don't expect to actually need them all. I will probably make a few more so that my friends can each shoot some range shots as well. They are custom-made to my gun. No slop whatsoever between the bolt/pin and primer, and at the far end, the brass neck is laying right at the barrel's mouth, the bullet ready to blow down the barrel.
Bullet-- Nosler Ballistic Tip, 150 grain. Brass-- Hornady Match Class Primer-- Long-Burn Powder-- Varget, packed hotter-than-normal, but well-under the Tikka's "max muzzle-velocity."
Earl has all the physics and specs on our bullet. All I know is that it drops game now. No suffering.
This is the Coyote that I killed on Sunday morning.
He was big-- Alpha Male-- and the bastard and his little pack of five-- Dad, Mom, and 3 pups-- decided to hunt the same field that we all hunt. I first heard the pack before sunrise... Clear across the field. I saw them cross in two shadowy movements in the false dawn gloom. First, Alpha Coyote crossed the field, and then yipped/arfed to mom and the pups, they crossed right away. They yipped/arfed across the field to the field behind me, then turned toward me, and passed behind my tent by 30 yards, and kept on going for another 100 yards or so down the windbreak. I knew they were nearby, and I could hear Alpha-Boy yipping from far down-field. Tennessee Law says no shooting before 1/2-hour before sunrise, and no shooting at anything in another person's land.
Here's how it all worked out:
As the sun rose, I saw Alpha-Boy out at the 480 yard ridge, to my left. Just a wee speck by my eye, but the range-finder and the Nikon Bushmaster scope told the real story. He'd stand and sniff, and then move toward me up the tree line, and then sit on his haunches. He was hunting.... The rest of the pack was about a hundred yards to my right, behind me, in the other field. Other folk's property, nothing I could do about the others of the pack.
I lost him as he dropped into the valley and then rose up, about a 1/2-hour later at the 250 yard ridge... stand and sniff, and then sit down on his haunches, and then move down toward me (and the rest of his pack). He moved down toward the point that I might miss him as he moved into the valley obscured by the 100 yard ridge, and then, I'd be mid-point between a Coyote hammer and anvil, and I knew that needed to be fixed, and I sized-up and took the shot at 226 yards.
BANG!!! ... PLAP!! Dead Coyote.
I saw through the scope that he died fast-- I hit him right in the sternum-- and figured that he's done-for, I might as well let him be until I am ready to leave, and pull him off the land.
But, even laying there, dead, he scared off a Doe and then her following Buck, as they came running out on that same 250-yard Ridge, just an hour later. Four bounds into the field, I'd get the gun shouldered, and sighted, they'd see the Coyote, and immediately run back at nearly 180-degrees at full-speed.
About an hour after the deer came by and bolted, the Pack came yipping/arfing past my back, and made for Alpha-Boy. Mom came out to sniff the body quickly, but I couldn't get a real shot on her, it happened so fast, and then the Pack went yipping off into the next field, behind me. I hope they never come back. Earl's Dad has lost two small Dogs, three Piglets, and too many Peacocks, Geese, Chickens and Ducks to these very Coyotes.
The pup are real small, still. Killing Mom just might eradicate the pack. I skinned the Alpha Coyote, and I am going to try and tan the hide for the fur. First real try since I was a Boy Scout.... well see.
Just a note on scale of this Coyote: His nose and his rump touched the sides of my Honda Civic's HOOD, his tail hung over the side... It was every bit as big as "mean dog in the hood," last week. I don't really want to be pegged as "the wild dog killer," but Karma seems to be pushing me right now. This pack has been a menace to local farmers. The landowner's wife is baking me a cherry pie for taking this Coyote.
This disturbing and candid BBC documentary explores the history of modern interrogation techniques and the rise of modern torture using revealing interviews with state interrogators and state torturers. The legacy of this history continues to shapes our present, especially in the United States, and some of these techniques have now become routine in the war on terror - be it the use of dogs, water-boarding, or sexual humiliation. This long, unbroken line of inhuman cruelty connects Nazi Germany to Abu Ghraib, and is an essential issue in today’s political landscape.
